Articles by Estefano Gomez
The White House denied requesting an extension of the ceasefire with Iran, stating that productive talks are ongoing in Pakistan. The US x Iran ceasefire extension market now trades at 71.0%
YES, uοΏ½...
The U.S.-Iran negotiations are gaining traction, and Bitcoin prediction markets reflect the optimism. The market for Bitcoin surpassing $62,000 by April 18 sits at 99.2%
YES.
Market reaction
The οΏ½...
At least nine oil tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz this week, suggesting gaps in the US naval blockade. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by April 30 market sits at 15% YES.
The transοΏ½...
Iran secretly used a Chinese spy satellite to target US military bases in the Middle East. The odds of a US-Iran peace deal by April 22 sit at 20%
YES.
The peace deal market rose from 12% a week aοΏ½...
A Chinese oil tanker, Rich Starry, was forced to retreat from the Strait of Hormuz due to a US blockade. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 10%
YES, up from 8% a day aοΏ½...
The US has initiated a multi-layered naval blockade on Iranian ports using F-35s, destroyers, and satellite surveillance, according to Al Arabiya. The probability of the US lifting the blockade by MaοΏ½...
The International Monetary Fund has warned of a potential global recession due to high oil prices, exacerbated by the ongoing Iran conflict. The ECB 50 bps rate cut market sits at 0.1%
YES, while tοΏ½...
Pakistan is pushing for new US-Iran peace negotiations. The ceasefire-by-April-21 market is at 10.5%
YES, unchanged despite the diplomatic initiative.
The April 22 peace deal market sits at 20.5% οΏ½...
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Trump tariffs might be reinstated by July following a Supreme Court setback, pushing the odds of Trump visiting China by May 31 to 81.5%
YES on PolymοΏ½...
Peruβs JEE will review over 4,000 observed tally sheets, potentially altering the runoff outcome. On Polymarket, Rafael LΓ³pez Aliagaβs odds of winning the presidency sit at 16.5%
YES, with the ...
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