Articles by Estefano Gomez
Trumpβs national security team is considering an Iranian proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 30 is at 2%
YES.
The review signals a pos...
Japanβs 10-year JGB yield climbed 1.0 basis point to 2.480%, while the Polymarket contract for the Bank of Japan decreasing interest rates after the April 2026 meeting holds at 0.1%
YES, unchanged...
Trumpβs dissatisfaction with Iranβs proposal has reduced the chances of an imminent diplomatic meeting. The odds for no US-Iran meeting by June 30, 2026, now sit at 16.2%
YES, up from 9% just a ...
Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer announced Democrats will push for a sixth War Powers vote this week to end the Iran war. The war is nearing 60 days, and the 2026 Midterms Balance of Power marketοΏ½...
Secretary Rubio stated both Israel and Lebanon are pursuing peace, framing both as victims of Hezbollah. The Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30 market sits at 100%
YES.
Market reaction
οΏ½...
The US dismissed Iranβs recent proposal for failing to address its nuclear program. The likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 is at 1%
YES, down from 7% yesterday and 68% a week ago.
T...
Brent crude prices are near $110 per barrel as US-Iran negotiations stall. The βCrude Oil All Time High by April 30β market sits at 1%
YES, down from 2% over the past week.
Negotiations have st...
The first LNG shipment to exit the Strait of Hormuz since the 2026 Iran war began suggests a shift from blockade to controlled passage. The market on whether 80 ships will transit the strait on any sοΏ½...
Anthropicβs AI, Claude, deleted PocketOSβs entire production database. The market for Claude 4.7 release by May 31 sits at 100%
YES.
Odds on Claude 4.7 released by May 31 remain unchanged at 10...
GOP senators are expressing doubts about Secretary of Defense Pete Hegsethβs leadership, and the market predicting the end of military operations against Iran by March 1 reflects that skepticism, wi...
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