Articles by Estefano Gomez
U.S. military planes are landing in the region as Iran warns of ongoing conflict. The probability of U.S. ground forces entering Iran by year-end is expected to increase by 15%, while the likelihood οΏ½...
Israel is preparing for potential escalation with Iran as US military posture shifts. The likelihood of the US-Iran ceasefire ending by April 21 is at 20%
YES, up from 6% just a day ago.
Market reοΏ½...
President Trump has convened a White House Situation Room meeting to address Iranβs closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30 sit at 13%
YES, down from 22% yesterd...
A Hezbollah post-ceasefire booby trap killed an IDF reservist in southern Lebanon. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 100%
YES, though the attack raises questions about whethοΏ½...
US forces have returned 23 vessels to Iran as part of a naval blockade, and the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market prices traffic returning to normal by June at 0%
YES.
Traders read theοΏ½...
Iranβs Parliament Speaker revealed a direct confrontation with the US over a minesweeper in the Strait of Hormuz. The market for a diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 13%
YES, down from 22% yes...
ADB President Masato Kanda warned that Japanβs gradual rate hikes are putting pressure on the yen, and the Polymarket contract βBank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?...
Iranβs Deputy Foreign Minister announced talks with the US are on hold pending a mutually agreed framework, and the market for no qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sits at 2%
YES.
...
The UN Security Council will convene following Ukraineβs request to address Russian shelling and civilian casualties. The odds of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30 are at 9.5%
YES, down from 1...
Two vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz have reported gunfire incidents. The likelihood of the UK sending warships through the Strait by April 30 sits at 6%
YES, down from 12% a week aοΏ½...
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