Articles by Estefano Gomez
A whale has opened a $90.9 million 20x long position on Ethereum. The Ethereum above $1,800 on April 16 market sits at 100%
YES, and Ethereum above $1,700 on April 17 is at 100%
YES.
Market reacοΏ½...
Iran is mulling a law to ban Israeli-linked ships from the Strait of Hormuz. The Polymarket contract on UK warships transiting the strait by April 30 sits at 8.5%
YES.
Market reaction
The warshipοΏ½...
Iran says it wonβt engage in new talks with the US, pushing the ceasefire end by April 21 market to 22%
YES, up from 6% yesterday.
The refusal has moved related markets sharply. The Iran uranium ...
US Marines seized the Iranian-flagged cargo vessel M/V Touska in the Arabian Sea on April 19, enforcing the US naval blockade on Iranian ports. The βStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end...
Rumen Radevβs Progressive Bulgaria coalition has won the parliamentary election with 37-45% of the vote. The market for Radev becoming Bulgariaβs next Prime Minister is at 96.6%
YES, up from 76%...
Iranβs Speaker of the Parliament referenced βvibe-tradingβ in digital crude oil markets, citing a Bloomberg Terminal command for Dated Brent oil prices. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits ...
The US Navy has seized an Iranian ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 31 is at 20% YES, down as tensions escalate.
οΏ½...
Vessels came under fire in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, pushing odds that 80 ships will transit the Strait by April 30 down to 26.5%
YES from 51% yesterday.
Market reaction
The market dοΏ½...
National Australia Bank has raised its credit provisioning, pointing to market volatility from the Middle East conflict. This has led to a slight increase in the odds of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 inοΏ½...
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi criticized US threats against Iranian ports, claiming they show a lack of commitment to diplomacy. The statement has pushed down odds on the US blockade of theοΏ½...
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