Articles by Estefano Gomez
## Market Snapshot
Strait of Hormuz Ship Transit market is currently priced at 45% YES for May 31, down from 52% yesterday. Strait of Hormuz Traffic by May 15 market shows a 0.2% YES probability. Kh�...
## Market Snapshot
Strait of Hormuz Traffic by May market is priced at 0.5% YES for May 15 and 9.5% YES for May 31. Strait of Hormuz Ship Transit market shows 46% YES for 20 ships by May 31. US Inva�...
## Market Snapshot
In the “Fed Decision June and July” market, the current pricing reflects a 2.1% YES likelihood for a 25 bps rate cut after the June 2026 meeting, down from 3% 24 hours ago. Mea...
## Market Snapshot
The market for “Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 10, 2026?” is currently priced at 99.9% YES. This represents a significant increase from 90% a day ago and 91% ...
## Market Snapshot
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization market is currently priced at 42.5% YES for normalization by end of June, down from 54% a day ago. The market for normalization by May 15 is�...
## Market Snapshot
Potential Strike on Iran by June market is currently priced at 4.1% YES, maintaining stability over the past week. The Strait of Hormuz Traffic by May 15 market has decreased to 1�...
## Market Snapshot
Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair Timeline: May 14 is priced at 0.7% YES, while May 15 is at 29.5% YES. Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Confirmation by May 15 is at 93.5% YES. Fed Chair Confir�...
## Market Snapshot Trump’s Visit to China market shows 0.1% YES for a visit on May 9, unchanged over the past week. The Trump Visit to China by May 31 market is priced at 94.9% YES, reflecting a sli...
## Market Snapshot
Iran’s Enriched Uranium Surrender market is priced at 46.5%
YES for the December 31, 2026 deadline, up from 42% 24 hours ago. The June 30, 2026 deadline is at 25% YES, showing ...
## Market Snapshot
US-Iran Nuclear Deal by June market is currently priced at 38.5% for a YES outcome, previously at 28% a day ago. Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market shows a 42% YES proba...
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