Articles by Estefano Gomez
Trump has proposed ceasefire talks to end the Iran war, including a 20-year nuclear moratorium. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 sit at 41.0%
YES, up from 35% a day aοΏ½...
Lebanese civilians are cautiously returning home as the ceasefire with Israel holds. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 94%
YES, up from 45% a week ago.
Market reaction
TοΏ½...
A proposal to freeze Satoshi Nakamotoβs Bitcoin has surfaced without shaking market confidence. Bitcoin price above $62,000 on April 17 sits at 99.9%
YES.
Market reaction
The proposal, led by Ja...
US-Iran talks brokered by Pakistan are reportedly in their final phase, with a deal signing ceremony expected soon. The market on the ceasefire ending by April 21 sits at 8%
YES.
Market reaction
οΏ½...
The EUβs AI Office cannot access Anthropicβs Mythos model for cybersecurity review, affecting the βThird best AI model by April 2026β market, where odds are expected to drop 15%.
Market react...
Trump claims Iran has agreed to hand over βnuclear dustβ from its bombed facilities. The odds of Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 are now at 39.2%
YES, up from 35% yesterday.
The Iran...
Bloomberg reports a Trump-Xi summit is scheduled for mid-May. The market for Trump visiting China by May 31 is now at 85.5%
YES, up from 76% a week ago.
The May 31 sub-market moved from 82% to 85.οΏ½...
China is ramping up diplomatic efforts with Iran while coordinating a summit with Trump. The market for Trumpβs visit to China by May 31 is at 85.5%
YES, up from 76% a week ago.
Chinaβs active ...
Chinaβs foreign minister announced a priority to push the US and Iran back to the negotiation table. The Polymarket contract for no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting by June 30 sits at 2.1%
YE...
Henry Paulson warned that the U.S. needs a contingency plan if demand for Treasuries collapses, and the odds of a U.S. recession by the end of 2026 sit at 23%
YES on Polymarket.
Paulsonβs remarks...
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