Articles by Estefano Gomez
The U.S. military boarded the M/T Tifani, a tanker linked to Iranβs shadow fleet, in the Indo-Pacific. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 31 sits at 41%
YES.
Market reaction
The...
Iranβs 2026 uprising was quashed in two nights with a massive crackdown. Iranian regime fall by April 30 is at 1%
YES, unchanged from yesterday.
The crackdown didnβt budge the April 30 market, ...
Solana has processed more tokenized stock trading volume than all other blockchains combined since July 2025, and the Polymarket contract for Solana reaching $110 by April 18 reflects bullish positioοΏ½...
Bitcoin is trading above $75,000 as traders watch the U.S.-Iran ceasefireβs expiry and Kevin Warshβs Senate confirmation hearing for Fed Chair. The market for Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by December...
Iranian security forces suppressed protests in Mashhad, and the Polymarket contract on Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 sits at 5.5%
YES, down from 6% a week ago.
The crackdown suggests IraniοΏ½...
Ukraine hit Russiaβs Tuapse refinery with drones for the second time in a week, part of a broader campaign targeting rail and oil sites. On Polymarket, odds for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closing by A...
Michael Saylorβs $2.54B Bitcoin purchase has lifted market sentiment, with the Polymarket contract for Bitcoin above $66K on April 21 priced at 99.9%
YES.
The buy came during heightened US-Iran t...
Trumpβs ultimatum to Iran threatens severe consequences for rejecting nuclear talks. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 are at 32.8%
YES, up from 22% a week ago.
Trad...
Tehran sent a negotiating team to Islamabad today. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market sits at 20.5%
, down from 16% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 22 peace deal market droppοΏ½...
Iran has yet to confirm participation in Pakistan-hosted talks, casting doubt on diplomatic progress. The chance of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 19.5%
, down from 16% just 24 hοΏ½...
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