Articles by Estefano Gomez
U.S. oil exports are increasing during the ongoing U.S.-Israel war with Iran, shifting global supply patterns. The market for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 0% YES, reflecting expected pοΏ½...
Sirens sounded in Israelβs Western Galilee after a drone infiltration was detected, the latest in ongoing hostilities with Hezbollah. The market for an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 sits at ...
Ethereumβs SuperTrend indicator has signaled buy for the first time since May last year, while Ethereum price predictions for April 20-26 sit at 0% YES.
The SuperTrend flip suggests the end of a lo...
Iranβs Foreign Minister Araghchiβs talks with Pakistani officials ended without progress. The probability of a US-Iran meeting by April 26 dropped to 10%
YES.
Market reaction
Odds for a diplom...
OpenAIβs GPT-5.5 Pro is now available on Venice, pushing βGPT-5.5 released by April 30β to 100%
YES.
The April 23 market also hit 100%
YES, up from 93% just a day ago. Odds had climbed stea...
Iran refused to meet US negotiators Witkoff and Kushner in Pakistan. The odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 sit at 9.5%
YES, down from 61% a week ago.
The permanent peace deal by AοΏ½...
Bloombergβs podcast named John Ternus as the next CEO of Apple, with Tim Cook stepping down on September 1, 2026, to become executive chairman. The Next CEO of Apple market is expected to reprice sh...
A quantum computer broke a 15-bit elliptic curve key in a Bitcoin-related test. The demonstration doesnβt immediately threaten Bitcoinβs 256-bit security but raises questions about future vulnerab...
Iranβs Foreign Ministry said no meeting with the US is planned. The April 24 US-Iran diplomatic meeting market dropped to 0%
YES, down from 1% a day ago.
The denial moved other dates too. The Apr...
Donald Trump criticized the Supreme Courtβs tariff ruling, and his potential visit to China by May 31 dropped to 73.5%
YES, down from 76% yesterday.
The Supreme Court invalidated tariffs imposed ...
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