Articles by Estefano Gomez
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is insisting on a full Israeli withdrawal as a condition for any agreement in the ongoing Israel-Lebanon peace talks. The market on an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meοΏ½...
Iranβs closure of the Strait of Hormuz over ceasefire breaches has pushed odds for a Trump-Iran meeting by April 30 down to 3.2%
, falling from 8% just a day ago.
Market reaction
The diplomatic m...
The US Senate voted 51-46 against a resolution to limit President Trumpβs war powers in Iran, leaving the market on no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting by June 30 at 8%
YES, up from 2% a week...
SoFi now offers XRP trading through FDIC-insured accounts, but the Polymarket contract for XRP reaching $2.60 by end of April 2026 sits at 0.5%
YES, unchanged over the past week.
Market reaction
οΏ½...
China is reportedly considering a slower pace of consumer lending rate cuts, according to Caixin. On Polymarketβs China Annual GDP Growth 2026 market, the probability of 2026 annual GDP growth falli...
Iranian state media reports the collection of toll revenue from the Strait of Hormuz, with funds already in the Central Bank. The probability of 80 ships transiting daily by April 30 is at 5%
, downοΏ½...
A Pentagon assessment shared with Congress suggests mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz could take up to six months. The market for 80 ships transiting by April 30 now sits at 5%
YES, down from οΏ½...
Lindsey Graham hinted at a possible global expansion of the U.S. blockade on Iran. The market for a U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 100%
YES, but Grahamβs statement points toward ...
Israel has set up a military zone several kilometers into southern Lebanon, called the βYellow Line,β despite an existing ceasefire. The market for an Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026...
Honeywell announced the $1.4 billion sale of its Productivity Solutions and Services business to Brady Corporation, while SpaceXβs S-1 filing projects a $28.5 trillion addressable market. The odds f...
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