Articles by Estefano Gomez
Iran faces major reconstruction costs after the Twelve-Day War, pushing leaders toward negotiations on sanctions relief. The market for Trump agreeing to oil sanction relief in April sits at 36.5%
οΏ½...
Trumpβs ultimatum to the Fed chair injects uncertainty as Bitcoin hovers at $75,000. Bitcoin above $58,000 by April 14 is at 100%
YES.
The market for Bitcoin staying above $58,000 is priced at 10...
Russiaβs latest air assault on Kyiv and Odesa killed 17 people, pushing ceasefire odds lower. The ceasefire by May 31, 2026 market now sits at 5%
YES, down from 6% yesterday.
Market reaction
The...
Field Marshal Asim Munirβs visit to Tehran to facilitate new US-Iran talks has the possibility of a ceasefire by April 21 priced at 10.5%
YES.
The April 21 ceasefire market sits at 10.5%
YES, w...
Ukraine secured fresh aid pledges for drones, air defense, and logistics at the Ramstein summit. The ceasefire by April 30, 2026, market is at 1.8%
YES, down from 2% a week ago.
Market reaction
NοΏ½...
Israelβs military operations in southern Lebanon are intensifying the 2026 Lebanon war, with the Polymarket contract on military action in Greater Beirut by April 1 priced at 100%
YES.
Market rea...
Russian missile and drone attacks on Kyiv, Odesa, and Dnipro have killed 12 people, pushing the probability of a ceasefire by April 30, 2026, down to 1.8%
YES from 2% a week ago.
Market reaction
οΏ½...
Saudi Arabiaβs NEOM has launched a new trade route linking Europe to the Gulf that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz ship transit market currently prices YES at a 15% expected decr...
Miner reserves have dropped by 61K BTC since the cycle began. Bitcoin staying above $62,000 on April 17 is at 99.9%
YES.
Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital, and Core Scientific are offloading BitcoiοΏ½...
The Fedβs April 2026 Beige Book describes slight to modest growth, with energy costs surging due to the Iran War. The likelihood of the Fed following a CutPausePause pattern by April is 0%
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Marke...
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