Articles by Estefano Gomez
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict poses global economic risks, particularly through accelerated inflation. On Polymarket, the market for a 50+ bps ECB ratοΏ½...
OpenAI plans to go public, but CEO Sam Altmanβs financial interests remain opaque. On the IPOs before 2027 market, odds for an OpenAI IPO before 2027 sit at 15%
YES.
## Market reaction
The IPO a...
Israelβs elite naval unit Shayetet 13 carried out a seaborne invasion of Naqoura, Lebanon on April 14, 2026, the first such operation since 2000. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market no...
Bitcoin miners offloaded a record 32,000 BTC in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing their entire sell-off for 2025, as hashprice hovers around $33/PH/s. The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching an all-tiοΏ½...
Residents are returning to southern Lebanon amid celebrations following a 10-day ceasefire with Israel. The ceasefire, which started at midnight, has pushed the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April οΏ½...
The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran has intensified, and Polymarket contracts tracking Iranβs political future are moving in response. The βIran Leadership Statusβ market predicts a le...
Israeli public sentiment is souring amid a US-Iran ceasefire, with despair rising and trust in leadership falling. The Iran military action by April 30 market sits at 100%
YES.
Market reaction
ThοΏ½...
The US is delaying weapons deliveries to some European countries to prioritize its military needs in the Iran theater. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by the end of May is at 34%
YES.
οΏ½...
OpenAI has agreed to a $20 billion deal for Cerebras chips that includes an equity stake in the company, pushing USD.AI FDV predictions to 15%
YES, a 15% increase from previous expectations.
MarkeοΏ½...
Macron and Starmer have rallied allies to consider a multinational mission for securing the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of the UK sending warships by April 30, 2026, sit at 5.5%
YES, down from 12% aοΏ½...
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