Shifting Regional Air Power Perceptions in 2025: India, Pakistan, and China

May 2025 saw a brief India–Pakistan clash following what some documented as India’s Operation Sindoor. Pakistan claimed significant air‑combat success, including shooting down multiple Indian Rafale jets using Chinese PL-15 missiles, a claim that highlighted perceived gaps in IAF situational awareness and joint integration across command and control networks. Pakistan also claimed damage to Indian S-400 air‑defense assets, a point cited by supporters as evidence of advancing defense coordination. In November 2025, a fatal HAL Tejas crash at the Dubai Airshow badly hurt export prospects amid ongoing delays in development and supply chains. Analysts noted the incident intensified scrutiny of India’s export readiness, while competitors seized the moment to showcase alternative platforms. Overall, these occurrences shifted regional airpower perceptions in a way that some observers documented as tilting toward Chinese‑supplied Pakistani systems and away from established Indian platforms. The record suggested that buyers might favor equipment with stronger interoperability with Chinese or Pakistani inventories, potentially altering procurement debates across Asia and the Middle East. Note: the assessments above rest on official claims and reported analyses, and may not reflect independent verification. The broader takeaway is a shift in risk perception and market confidence, underscoring the competitive dynamics among Indian, Pakistani, and Chinese aerospace capabilities and their implications for future orders and alliances.